Dipasa Europe market screening 06-07-2023
Dipasa Europe market screening 06-07-2023
Dipasa Europe’s market review with information about some major seed, kernel & vegetable oil markets. Do not hesitate to contact us via firstname.lastname@example.org for any additional questions or quotations.
Worldwide sesame prices remain firm and the main challenge lies in sourcing sesame seeds of good quality that comply with EU standards in regards to pesticides and microbiological parameters.
The supply of sesame seeds in Africa is limited, with most countries either not offering or at a high price level. It is important to monitor Sudan, any escalation of conflict could have an impact on global sesame supplies; after all Sudan is one of the largest sesame-producing countries and any decrease in output will lead to significant loss of volume. In the current market, considering the high-prices, other African origins might be able to partially compensate for this loss. Tanzania prices are decreasing a bit and are currently at a lower price level compared to other African countries / India. This may indicate good expectations for the fall harvest in West Africa. Uganda can start to offer again late July / beginning of August.
The Indian summer crop is expected to reach approximately 140,000 metric tons, significantly higher than previous season, however only 10-15% is considered pesticide free and therefore suitable for export to Europe. The Edit status volume increase is however positive news, while the demand from the EU and USA is weak (sesame imports into the EU have decreased compared to previous years), Asian countries continue to purchase sesame seeds at higher price levels. The demand from South Korea’s tender is also contributing to a stronger market than anticipated. Considering the short crops in Africa and concerns about drought in Central America, the Indian summer crop is helpful in supporting the market for the next months, although reportedly about 80% is sold already.
During the ETO crisis, Indian sesame imports into the EU declined in favor of Nigeria. However, recent trends suggest a reversal in this pattern due to concerns over Nigerian products containing salmonella, pesticides, and also logistical issues. China could play a significant role in influencing the Indian market as India is currently their only option (although Brazil will eventually follow by obtaining their import permit for China).
South America is currently harvesting the 2023 sesame crop, and the volumes look promising. Brazil is growing rapidly and official numbers show a significant production increase of 53,2% (+59k MT) compared to last year. Brazilian crop is expected to reach 170k MT this year. However, the challenge lies in finding batches of sesame seeds that comply with EU standards regarding pesticide use. Dipasa, having reliable partners in South America who we visit regularly, conducts pre-shipment testing on all batches to ensure compliance for the EU market.
Overall, the market situation for sesame seeds is complex. Nonetheless, we believe that the likelihood of prices declining within the next few months is low. Only if the West African crop performs well, there is a potential for a decrease in prices by the end of this year. We do also foresee a shortage of high-quality and EU-compliant sesame seeds in the upcoming months. As a result, we advise securing now your sesame seed requirements for a minimum of the next 6 months.
The flax seed market has witnessed a decrease in prices primarily attributed to insufficient demand, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle as buyers hold off expecting further price drops. Considering all the costs bared by farmers, it is anticipated that prices will not decline much beyond these price levels.
The sowing activities for the flax seed crop of 2023 has started, and initial projections indicate a reduced planting area in Canada and Kazakhstan. Consequently, it is expected that new crop prices will surpass the existing market prices.
Australia and Spain, two significant blue poppy producers, are currently experiencing low levels of plantings. Additionally, the crop in Spain is further threatened by the impact of heat. In the Czech Republic, there has been a 30% reduction in poppy plantings, attributed partly to unfavorable rainy weather affecting the sowing process and farmers shifting to more lucrative crops. The loss of the Russian market, which was a major consumer of their poppy material, has also contributed to the decline in plantings.
Given the global expected production levels, it is unlikely that the supply of poppy seeds will meet the global demand and as a reaction to the supply shortage significant price fluctuations are expected.
Currently, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Argentina are commencing their harvesting operations. Although the harvest in Paraguay was expected to begin ten days ago, rain has caused delays. It is anticipated that 40% of the production will be harvested in July, with the remaining portion being harvested in August and September. Bolivia has a specific trade arrangement with China through Mexico, resulting in the sale of thousands of tons at high prices to China, thereby impacting sales to other countries.
Argentina’s chia production is minimal and predominantly comprises conventional chia. Historically, Paraguay has produced between 30,000 MT and 35,000 MT of chia seeds, while Bolivia’s production ranges from 13,000 MT to 15,000 MT, and Argentina produces approximately 7,000 MT. Chia prices are highly influenced by weather conditions, making chia seeds fluctuate based on the quality of the harvest. Last year’s harvest was not particularly favorable. Prices began at similar levels to this year but experienced a rapid increase after the SIAL exhibition. Regarding the new crop, there are always some risks. Chia seeds are highly sensitive to low temperatures. As we enter winter in Paraguay, there are uncertainties around the weather conditions, if temperatures drop below freezing point a significant portion of the chia crop may be lost.
In April of this year, Dipasa Europe BV conducted a visit to Paraguay, where we had the opportunity to assess various chia suppliers. Our findings revealed a significant variation in terms of quality among these suppliers. We strongly recommend carefully evaluating your options before making any booking decisions, as this will ensure that you secure the desired quality standards for your chia products. Suppliers are currently providing pre-harvest prices that can be classified as advantageous. However, it is worth noting that if the harvest proves to be favorable, there is a possibility of further price reduction. For those seeking significant quantities, we highly recommend securing some volume now to ensure favorable pricing. It is important to consider that crop conditions are subject to potential disruptions, which could lead to price increases.
Analysis of the 2022 Crop:
There is currently a remaining stock of 20,000-25,000 metric tons (mts) of old crop shine skin materials in the Chinese market. Both overseas and domestic demand for these materials are experiencing sluggish growth. In terms of overseas demand, we anticipate the slow pace to persist in July and August, as most customers have already made their purchases and are now awaiting the arrival of the new crop.
Outlook for the 2023 Crop:
All new crop sowing operations were completed by the end of May, and the new crop is currently exhibiting healthy growth across all regions. The projected crop size for shine skin remains similar to that of the 2022 crop, whereas GWS is expected to experience a 30% reduction in size. By the end of September, the entire new crop will have been harvested, and we expect prices to stabilize at a favorable level. Notably, the demand from the European market for the 2022 crop has been lackluster, with customers displaying cautious purchasing behavior and a decrease in long-term contract commitments, primarily focusing on prompt shipments within a three-month timeframe. Given the current uncertainty regarding the remaining stock and utilization timeframe in the European market.
In terms of organic shine skin, the EU market primarily relies on two regions, namely Gansu and Northeast regions. However, the available quantity is limited. This year, the organic shine skin variety was completely sold out by approximately April, after only seven months of sales. Therefore, customers who wish to procure organic products are advised to book early for the upcoming season to secure a wider range of options in case of unforeseen circumstances. Regarding organic GWS, it is essential to acknowledge that this product is gradually disappearing from the Chinese market due to pesticide concerns and the presence of phosphonic acid. 2023 crop. Upon evaluating the European pumpkin market, we have identified it as a viable alternative to the Chinese variety. The prices being offered are competitive, and the quality of the European pumpkins is commendable.
The price of sunflower kernels had reached its lowest point in the last few years. The issue with such a low market price is that farmers are unable to cover their costs as it falls below the breakeven point. Consequently, farmers are holding onto their stock in order to drive up the price. The new crop is currently at a vulnerable stage, making it highly susceptible to extreme weather conditions. Unfavorable conditions have already had a negative impact on limited plantings in Ukraine.
As a result of these low prices, the demand for sunflower kernels is growing, particularly with China’s increasing imports expected in the near future. Based on these circumstances, our recommendation is to close any open volumes, as we anticipate that the price will continue to rise.
Currently, there is still weak demand for millet. However, this is not necessarily negative considering the availability of high-quality material during this time of the year. Price remain stable, despite the decrease in logistic costs in origin. Nonetheless, product pricing is slightly increasing. Ukraine serves as the largest supplier of millet in the EU.
It is worth noting that Russian material is being offered at a lower price, but it is important to be cautious about the quality level of this product. Our recommendation is definitely to close volumes, we strongly believe that any significant decreases in price are not realistic.
The prices of our sesame oil products have remained consistent with the rates observed last week, demonstrating stability in the market. However, this stability is subject to the fluctuations in the exchange rate between the Mexican Peso and the US Dollar in the coming days.
Our sesame oil products cater primarily to the Food Industry, Pharmaceutical sector, Nutraceutical industry, and Cosmetics sector. Regarding avocado oils, we observe a significant variation in quality. Mexican avocado oil commands a higher price. Presently. Our well-established supply chain enables us to provide both organic and conventional avocado oil.
*Kindly note that this information is dated 06-07-2023 and that markets are fluctuating on a daily basis.